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Grant amount：\1690000 （ Direct Cost: \1300000 、 Indirect Cost：\390000 ）

本研究の目的は、出生や教育に関わる行動と家計の属性の関係が国や時代によりどのように移り変わってきたのか実証的に明らかにした上で、その事実と整合的になるよう異質な家計から構成されるモデルを構築し、カリブレートしたモデルを使って公共政策などの効果を定量的に評価することである。
研究初年度である2021年度においては、家計の属性と出生・教育行動の関係についての幅広いファクトをまとめるために、各国の集計データだけでなくマイクロ・データも含めたデータの収集・整理を行った。
それに加え、家庭内での家事・育児・市場労働の時間配分に関する予備的な分析も実施した。American Time Use SurveyとCurrent Population Surveyのマイクロ・データを用いて、家庭内での時間配分が、個人の属性、配偶者の属性、子どもの数や年齢、家計の経済状況などによってどのように異なるか分析し、その結果、一定のパターンを見出すことができた。
また、関連する先行文献の調査も進めた。出生や教育に関して現実に観察されるさまざまな現象を同時に説明しようとするとモデルの複雑化が避けられないが、モデルが複雑すぎると計算量が膨大になりカリブレーションやシミュレーションが困難になる。研究テーマが類似した他の研究を調査することで、こうした問題を緩和するためのモデリングや計算手法の工夫などについて検討することができた。

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Grant amount：\16120000 （ Direct Cost: \12400000 、 Indirect Cost：\3720000 ）

This research program empirically and theoretically investigated whether Japanese firms changed their modes of human capital accumulation in the environment of low growth and fluid labor markets emerging after the burst of economic bubbles in the 1990s. It has been demonstrated that the income and wealth inequalities between the workers who are given the training opportunities to accumulate human capital and those who are not given are likely to become severe, as the training opportunities are given to a relatively small number of workers, although the firms prioritize human capital investment over other investment activities such as R&D and fixed investment. To redress these inequalities, the government should increase the training opportunities through employment subsidies and/or transfer incomes from the worker who are given the training opportunities to those who are not.

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Grant amount：\1950000 （ Direct Cost: \1500000 、 Indirect Cost：\450000 ）

In this study, we constructed a model of fertility choice under uncertainty about the future of children and examined the effect of wage inequality on fertility. We obtained the following results: (i) With risk-aversion, rising wage inequality induces parents to have fewer children. (ii) With prudence, rising wage inequality induces parents to educate children more, enhancing the effect of decreasing fertility through the quantity-quality interaction. In addition, we tested the validity of the model using U.S. census data.

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Grant amount：\43940000 （ Direct Cost: \33800000 、 Indirect Cost：\10140000 ）

Through empirical studies on several microdata sets, we showed that increases in non-regular employment beginning in the 2000s were accompanied by employment status persistence. As a result, a dual structure consisting of regular and non-regular employment has taken form in the Japanese labor market. Regular employment is characterized by seniority wages and wage premiums, while non-regular employment suffers restricted opportunities for wage increase. The regular employment market is rationed and thus labor mobility between these two markets is limited. This dual structure has changed employment adjustment among firms and, in response to economic shocks, has expanded the reallocation of non-regular employment.

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Grant amount：\2600000 （ Direct Cost: \2000000 、 Indirect Cost：\600000 ）

I have conducted the following two analyses on the historical fertility transition. First, I have developed a two-sector overlapping-generations model with gender heterogeneity. In contrast to existing models in the literature, the model is tractable in incorporating various shocks and assessing the effects of them. Second, I have developed a growth model explaining both micro evidence and macro evidence on the long-run fertility behavior. The simulated model replicates the fact that
(i) the average fertility rate exhibits hump-shaped dynamics and
(ii) there was a positive association between income and fertility across households in the pre-industrial era, whereas a clear association does not exist, positive or negative, in the modernera.

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