科研費基盤研究 2006-2007

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The purpose of this paper is to estimate policies of urban green spaces both in terms of their areas and spatial relations each other. A new index which combines 2nd-AI and residences' accessibility is developed and is introduced, as well as each index, to estimate the urban green space policy of Osaka City as a case study. The analyses obtain results as follows; (1) the spatial ecological potential of each ward in Osaka city is estimated by the agglomeration index, (2) the efficiencies of urban green spaces are able to be compared in view of living things, (3) distributed patterns of urban green spaces are located on a figure by efficiency and accessibility, (4) it is confirmed that the new combined index is clearly able to represent good spatial distribution of urban green spaces.

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Numerous attempts have been made by researchers and engineers to maintain infrastructures effectively. Especially, LCC minimization is the most important concept for them. However, it is not clear at least quantitatively what the most effective maintenance plan is. A management accounting is a very useful method for estimating costs of maintenance of an infrastructure during its lifecycle. The purpose of this paper is to structure management accounting system for an infrastructure maintenance plan and confirm its possibility. Simulations by the system lead to the conclusion that this system is able to show the minimization of lifecycle maintenance costs quantitatively. In addition, this shows the costs of insufficient maintenance caused by financial resources restriction and the effects of strategic maintenance planning.

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Travel demand forecasting is one of the most essential steps in the master transportation plan as well as individual infrastructure development projects. The forecast is usually made by the conventional four-step transportation model, in which the future land-use (in terms of socioeconomics) is a given input. This implies that interactions between land-use and transportation are totally neglected. It is considered that inaccurate input (socioeconomic forecast) is a primary source of inaccuracy of the travel demand forecast. Therefore, this paper presents, with an empirical result, the benefit of introducing land-use model into travel demand forecasting. The discussion is based on the result of TRANUS model application to Sapporo metropolitan area of Japan. TRANUS is a typical land-use/transportation model, which models the impact of transportation to the future land-use. A case study of with/without analysis shows that the new subway section has a substantially large impact to the future land-use. This evidence implies that land-use/transportation interaction must not be neglected in the modeling and analysis. Moreover, the fare comparison shows that the forecast made by the TRANUS Sapporo is more accurate than the PT forecast.

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出版者・発行元：Japan Association for Real Estate Sciences  

It is very common that urban transportation infrastructure developments be accompanied by additional peripheral developments. Therefore, it is important to be able to assess the contribution share of each development component when the benefit of the project is measured. In addition, joint effects are expected in the project, some of them caused by economies of scale and others by economies of scope. The present study aims at developing an operational measurement tool to unravel these effects by improving the Hedonic Price Approach. New explanatory variables are introduced in conventional land price function to represent joint effects. The new measurement tool is applied to a subway development project in Sendai City, Japan, and the new variables are found to be significant. The joint effect of subway and shopping center estimated in this case is about 5% of the total benefit.

DOI： 10.5736/jares1985.15.4_59

CiNii Books

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その他リンク： https://jlc.jst.go.jp/DN/JALC/00155448979?from=CiNii

記述言語：日本語   出版者・発行元：公益社団法人 日本都市計画学会  

This paper analyzes household transitions and relocation for forecasting population distribution by age. The main focus of this study is on elderly migration and children separation, since these two moves accelerate the aging process of residential districts. It is assumed that aging has strong explanatory power for these moves. To capture the effects of aging, a hazard model is adopted. This research provides evidence that aging of elderly people encourages them to move to join their children, and children separation in turn makes average age higher. In suburban areas, especially children separation underlies big changes of population distribution by age.

DOI： 10.11361/journalcpij.37.379

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記述言語：日本語   出版者・発行元：SOCIETY OF ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE, JAPAN  

高速道路等地域基盤整備事業は，膨大な種々の副産物を排出している．本研究では，全ライフサイクルにわたって，また他産業との関連において，建設資材の生産・副産物のリサイクルを取込んだ拡張産業連関表により，副産物発生量を計測するシステムを構築した．高速道路計画の路線選定の代替案比較にこのシステムを適用し，構造によって廃棄物の種類，量が大きく変化することを明らかにした．さらに，道路改修工事で排出される再利用可能骨材量が，統計データに基づく推定法による算出された．その結果は，近い将来，道路改修工事に必要な骨材は，回収される骨材で賄えることを示唆している．

DOI： 10.11353/sesj1988.14.159

CiNii Books

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その他リンク： https://jlc.jst.go.jp/DN/JALC/00072202340?from=CiNii

A project of infrastructure such as a road generates huge volumes of emissions in each stage of its construction, and thereafter due to maintenance and repairs. The amount of emissions, therefore, should be estimated for the totality of its project's life cycle. In order to develop a basic model to estimate total emissions, the activities of recycling, collection of by-products or wastes and disposal of wastes are added to the SNA style Input-Output table. In this table, a process of recycling resources between activities is explicitly included. This model is applied to an actual project of a Japanese national highway to estimate the amount of emissions generated by alternate plans of roads that differ in the lengths of elevated parts, cut/fill parts and tunnel parts respectively. A plan that is estimated to generate the minimum emissions in all the economic activities is not necessarily equal to a plan that is directly estimated in a road project.

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In the study of transportation in developing countries/areas, economic data such as population and employment is not always available. However, the conventional survey which requires many surveyors and many hours of fieldwork, does not necessarily guaranty accuracy of the data. On the other hand, physical data such as remote-sensing data are in general available even in little developed area and also represent economic activities. The purpose of the present study is to develop a system to estimate economic data based on physical data for transportation study in developing countries/areas. The system requires a limited number of economic data samples to calibrate estimation equations of economic data. We apply this system to the Sendai Metropolitan Area to test its validity in a situation where a complete set of data is available. The result shows that the system can substitute to some extent the conventional survey of economic data.

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The globalization process observed during the last decade contributed to the rise of international economic blocks worldwide. Eastern Asia, for years a hot spot of economic growth, is an immediate example of this trend. It is conventional wisdom that such regional economies would have not surged, and would not remain viable, without supporting infrastructure and services – in particular transportation. So far there have been no attempts, however, at measuring the levels of accessibility, the main product of a transportation network, at the continental level in Eastern Asia. In this study we adopt an indicator of accessibility and use a Geographic Information System to estimate continental accessibility levels, and then examine the relationship between accessibility and economic growth. Furthermore, as an example of the kind of scenarios that could be explored using our system, we estimate accessibility gains due to two hypothetical situations involving new transportation facilities and regional socioeconomic changes.

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記述言語：日本語   出版者・発行元：公益社団法人 日本都市計画学会  

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the difference of bid rent curves between cases that residents are regarded as homogeneous and heterogeneous. Data obtained by a questionnaire that asks residents about their attributes are linked with land price data. Then the data are divided into two groups in terms of income and householder's age. By using these data, two bid rent curves are estimated. Parameters of these are significantly different from those estimated in the case that residents are regarded as homogeneous. In the benefit of a subway project in Sendai as a case study, it is found that the difference is only 3 % of the benefit even if residents are regarded as homogeneous.

DOI： 10.11361/journalcpij.36.661

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出版者・発行元：Japan Society of Civil Engineers  

本論文では，関東－九州，関西－九州間について，海上輸送の利用意向に関してトラック事業者にアンケート調査を実施し，複合一貫輸送システムの構築に向けた課題を示すことを目的とする．トラック事業者が，モーダルシフトを推進する上で阻害要因として，(1)帰り荷確保の問題，(2)相手先での配送体制の問題，(3)輸送途中での立ち寄り・混載の必要性，(4)自社の営業上の問題，(5)その他（急な輸送変更への対応，貨物特性等）といった，様々な国内貨物流動への対応上の問題やトラック事業者固有の問題が存在することを示した．これらの問題に対応し，陸上と海上モードが一体となった円滑な複合一貫輸送システムの構築に向けた具体的な方策を提案した．

DOI： 10.2208/journalip.16.725

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The transportation infrastructure requires a huge amount of cost, which is generally financed by a limited number of generations, although it is usually used not only by the generations but also for a long time over generations. Generational accounting is an ideal that deals with such structure of payment and return over generations as pension systems. The present study has developed a generational accounting system for an urban rail transit project as an example. With the system developed, it is confirmed that the cost and benefit structure is clearly illustrated in tables according to policy options, which will provide new viewpoints for project evaluation and financing.

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出版者・発行元：Japan Society of Civil Engineers  

本論文では，関東－九州，関西－九州間の国内貨物輸送について，海上輸送の利用意向に関してトラック事業者にアンケート調査を実施し，トラック事業者の輸送スケジュール特性に着目して，海上輸送ダイヤ条件の改善によるモーダルシフトの意向割合の変化を把握し，モーダルシフト推進のためのダイヤ面からみた条件を具体的に見出すことを目的とする．トラック事業者の輸送スケジュール特性として大きく５つの荷主・品目を紹介し，これらを考慮した際の効果的な海上輸送ダイヤ条件を提示した．分析の結果，トラック事業者のモーダルシフトの意向割合は，海上輸送ダイヤ条件で大きく異なっていることが示された．

DOI： 10.2208/journalip.15.573

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Mass transportation systems have been built in a number of large cities. However some of those systems are not put to effective use. We analyze the shopping behavior in search of clues as how to increase the patronage of the system in off-peak hours. The present study builds a set of models to represent shopping behaviors in Sendai as a case study by using the nested-logit-model. Then effects of some possible policy alternatives on ridership are quantitatively analyzed by the model. The results show the validity of the model as an analysis tool for selecting detailed policy measures by discriminating the target.

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Subway systems have been developed in large cities in Japan. All of these projects, operated by the public sector, are in financially critical situation, mainly because patronage has not been enough large for the public sector to pay back under a scheme of self-supporting system. However, only a few attempts have been made to evaluate the effects of subway systems in detail with respect to the relationship between urban development and transportation explicitly. We made an investigation and based on it developed a behavioral model to evaluate the effects of the subway project in Sendai City, Japan.

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Almost all transportation projects in developing countries are recently being proposed or actually implemented under Build, Operate and Transfer (BOT) scheme. However, there are a variety of issues and problems in those transportation infrastructures are provided by not public but private sectors. This paper firstly presents the issues as well as risks regarding BOT scheme in transportation projects in developing countries. In addition to the discussion on the problems, this paper also proposes a way of overall development of a whole transportation network which is hard to be completed in a conventional scheme of BOT. In this proposal, public sector participation in the BOT project as an investor is expected to maintain a fund for cross-subsidization for the development of unprofitable sections which private sectors cannot take as BOT projects and the public sector should develop by itself.

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RURBAN is a land-use model, which is one of the 20 urban models listed up by Wegener(2003). The aim of the present paper is to improve RURBAN in the following terms; (1) to rebuild the theoretical interpretation and the model building to solve the inconsistencies and incompleteness found in the existing model, (2) to integrate RURBAN with an existing transport model to constitute a land-use andtransport model, (3) to apply the new model to a metropolis with more detailed area unit ofanalysis and expanded functions of the decision support system, and (4) to validate theeffectiveness of the system as a DSS in real planning and project evaluation. The RURBAN model for Sapporo is constructed by using data from various sources. Size of the zones in the study area ranges from 10,000 square meters in the city centre to millions in the suburbs. Thenumber of zones is as many as 8,000 zones. Parameter estimation are justified and validated with the change during 1990 to 1995; and themodel could perform satisfactorily. Case study with Subway Line Extension demonstrates the application of the model in the real planning practice.

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Private sector participation in infrastructure projects has been widely accepted in the world in order to pursue more efficiency in and effectiveness of the project and supplement the lack of public finance. However, there are few studies on comprehensive impacts which the private sector participation may bring about; changes in multiplier effects, economic benefits and costs, and public finance including tax effects and transfer between local and central governments. The aim of the present study is to build a comprehensive system with which various impacts caused by changes in the scheme of public works or procurement of public services can be estimated in order to evaluate the final impacts on stakeholders in the society. After building a general flow system of money and benefits in a case of an infrastructure project by identifying the relationships between the stakeholders, tools are equipped to the system to estimate the amount of financial flows including tax and subsidy under an alternative public finance institution and a project scheme. As a case study, a road project of DBFO (Design, Build, Finance and Operate) scheme is compared with that of conventional scheme. The results of the case study shows that VFM evaluation depends significantly on the viewpoint and the scope of the analysis and that the difference is enough substantial. In addition, the results demonstrate the necessity of public finance transfer between central and local governments in order to make the project more efficient and effective with the participation of the private sector.

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開催地：学術フロンティアセンター  

平成18年６月15日 （第２回）・６月29日 （第３回）・７月６日 （第４回） 企業技術者に対し、 鶴田浩章助教授 （第２回）、 西形達明助教授 （第３回）、 北詰恵一助教授

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ISSN 0919-9667

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